Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
