Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.