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A mere two months in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or a cause of Villa's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. As the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

That’s a rather hard question to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have piled up.

Per Opta, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – however right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.

• The main striker may begin to scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he resembled in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.